CONSIDER THE LOBSTER
EDITOR’S NOTE: This edition of The Heat Beat was originally published on 5/22/2019.
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TOPLINE
Maine lobster industry: 10k jobs, $500M, $1.5B econ. impact
Gulf of Maine warming faster than 99% of world's oceans
Boom now, but likely bust to come (see CT, RI, NY)
Coastal Maine "Instant Appalachia" if lobster haul disappears
ACTION: Consider donating to the Working Waterfront, a journalism project run by Maine's 501(c)3 Island Institute
A couple years ago, I found myself on a lobster boat off the coast of northern Maine (which is called, inscrutably, Downeast; figure it out on your own time) watching central-casting New Englanders dutifully flinging the crustaceans over the side. The boat heaved up and down on massive—to me at least—Atlantic swells about 20mi offshore while the men worked in the unforgiving sun. It was all very cinematic, which was ideal, considering I was there with a film crew to shoot this episode of a web series I produced and hosted for Thrillist.
It me, the lobster party boi. I wanted to title the episode “Consider The Lobster” after the famous DFW essay, because I'm a shameless hack. I got overruled, so now that’s what this edition is called instead.
Anyway! This newsletter is about climate change, not my cliche taste in headlines. There’s a point here, I swear. The lobstermen were chucking those beady-eyed critters back into the abyss to conserve Maine’s lucrative lobster fishery, which brings the state about $500 million each year in economic benefit. Maine lobstermen are actually really good at conservation. But as waters get warmer further and further up the East Coast, toss-backs alone can’t safeguard these bankable sea creatures from disappearing, as they have in waters off southern New England and New York. Can anything?
Warming Waters: Friend And Foe
Climate change be complicated, compadres. Case in point: the very same temperature increases that created Maine’s unprecedented lobster boom around 10 years ago may soon trigger a corresponding bust. A 2015 study by researchers in the state found the Gulf of Maine has been warming faster than 99% of the world’s oceans. Even as it decimates fisheries farther south, the increase has made something of a “sweet spot” in Maine’s waters. The lobsters are able to grow bigger faster, basically.
So if things could just stay that way, I’d say buy you some lobster futures and wait for those crustaceans to turn to cash. But given we’re still putting unprecedented amounts of carbon into the air, and carbon has been proven to warm the earth, it’s a good bet that Maine’s long crustacean sensation won’t last forever. A 2017 study found that the Gulf’s lobster populations could fall over 60% by 2050 because of warming waters. “We’re past the point of climate change helping us,” one lobsterman said in 2018. “We’re on the downward spiral.”
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The “Gilded Trap” Closes
Sounds bleak, right? Don’t worry, it gets worse. You know that Maine is synonymous with lobsters, but you might not have realized how dependent parts of the state on the crustaceans. And that’s got experts are claw-fully concerned for two reasons. (Ed. note: I feel no remorse for this pun, and never will.)
Think of it as a one-two Downeaster punch:
PUNCH #1: In 2014, lobsters provided some 80% of the state’s entire seafood income; the figure has floated between 75-85% in recent years. Dr. Bob Steneck, the scientist I interviewed for our video piece, has referred to this situation as a “gilded trap”, wherein high-dollar hauls incentivize lobstermen to focus more energy on catching more lobster. Even though a lot of them see the inherent risk in this all-in position they can’t really avoid it, either. Which brings us to....
PUNCH #2: Aside from warming waters, the lobster boom in the Gulf was also brought on by overfishing that killed off lobsters’ natural predators in the Gulf, like cod and haddock. (Climate change also played a role; shocker, I know.) This gave improbably cute baby lobsters a better shot at survival, reproduction, longevity, etc. Lobsters are the world’s most valuable commercial fishery, so though there were academic alarms, working fishermen didn't dwell on it, and started setting gear for the little buggers instead.
So if the boom goes bust, there’s not much to fall back on (which, insidiously, is partly why the boom happened in the first place.) “You eliminate lobsters, and you have an instant Appalachia, right here,” said one fisherman-turned-scientist in 2018.
Lobsternomics In “Lobstocracy”
We know what happens when an economic bust follows a boom. Businesses close, people wind up unemployed, and times generally get tough for whoever was involved. If that happens to Maine’s lobster industry, the economic consequences could be dramatic. While Maine only issued ~4,800 commercial lobstering licenses in 2018, that represents over 10,000 mostly blue-collar jobs and ~$1.5B economic impact in-state alone, according to Maine Senator Susan Collins’ website.
That’s still just a sliver of the Pine Tree State’s ~$61B overall economy, so we’re not talking about a total civic collapse here. For the generations of Mainers who have organized their lives, communities, and careers around the crustacean, though, that’s cold comfort. “We live in a lobstocracy,” one Downeast academic explained in 2018. Some lobstermen report earnings of around $200,000 a year. There just ain't many jobs in Lobstocracy can replace that income. As it stands now, many lobstermen don’t even bother seeking temp gigs outside the industry in the off-season, opting instead to use that time to get their gear ready for next season.
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Developers Eye The Waterfront
But beyond the social disruption and economic despair, there’s also an environmental concern here. Maine’s waterfront is dominated by working docks, wharves, marinas, etc. because the businesses that use ‘em are (for now) solvent. If the bottom falls out on lobster, waterfront property will likely be redeveloped for more lucrative uses: namely, hotels and residential projects.
Even during the boom, it’s already happening, and fishermen have been fiercely protesting proposed developments in Portland, Boothbay Harbor, and elsewhere. If the lobster bust comes, more harborside properties will be in play. Any new construction can temporarily disrupt the harbor ecosystems, which is not great. But new hotels and condos also permanently remake the waterfront, replacing relatively low-traffic fishermen with high-impact tourism more prone to over-development and over-use.
And now, the question we should all be asking ourselves: